紐時賞析／俄軍戰線推進 幾乎寸步難行

俄羅斯襲擊烏克蘭德魯日基夫卡後的景象。俄軍往往在夏季加快行動速度，因爲天氣較佳，樹木繁茂的掩護也能讓他們更容易躲避無人機。（紐約時報）

Putin’s Forces Are Barely Inching Along on the Battlefield

俄軍戰線推進 幾乎寸步難行

President Vladimir Putin of Russia has sought to convince President Donald Trump that his troops are marching toward inevitable victory in Ukraine, arguing that Kyiv should hand over the entire eastern Donbas region to avoid impending defeat.

俄羅斯總統普亭試圖說服美國總統川普，聲稱俄軍在烏克蘭的勝利勢在必得，並主張基輔應交出整個頓巴斯東部地區，以免陷入敗局。

But the situation on the battlefield tells a different story.

然而，戰場上的實際情況卻呈現出截然不同的樣貌。

After making gains late last year, the Russian military has slowed to a crawl. In some parts of Ukraine, it has lost territory. At its average monthly rate of advance so far this year, it would take Russia more than three decades to seize full control of the Donbas, which the Kremlin has set as a condition for ending the war.

俄軍在去年底取得部分進展後，如今推進速度已大幅放緩，幾乎停滯。在烏克蘭部分地區甚至出現失去戰果。依照今年以來的平均推進速度推算，俄羅斯恐怕需要超過30年，才能完全控制頓巴斯，而這正是克里姆林宮設定的停戰條件之一。

In recent days, Ukrainian officials have warned that Moscow’s troops are gearing up for new offensives and have intensified operations across the front.

近日烏克蘭官員警告，俄軍正準備發動新一波攻勢，並已在整條戰線加強行動。

Still, Russia enters this push on the back foot. It has faced setbacks this year, including the loss of Starlink satellite internet access that helped guide its drones. The Kremlin’s throttling of the Telegram messaging app, as it tightens control over the Russian internet, has also hampered soldiers’ communications.

儘管如此，俄羅斯在這波攻勢中仍處於劣勢。今年以來已遭遇多項挫折，包括失去曾用於引導無人機的星鏈衛星網路。此外，克里姆林宮在加強網路管控之際限制通訊軟體Telegram的使用，也削弱前線士兵的通訊能力。

More broadly, Russia has yet to solve the fundamental problem of how to make big advances on a battlefield saturated with drones. The days of sending masses of troops charging through front lines in armored vehicles are mostly over.

更廣泛而言，俄羅斯仍未解決一個根本問題：如何在無人機密佈的戰場上取得重大突破。過去那種派遣大批部隊乘坐裝甲車衝鋒的方式，基本上已經過去了。

Instead, the contest between Kyiv and Moscow is largely one of developing better drones, and better defenses against them. On certain parts of the front, Ukraine has gained the upper hand in recent months with rapid advancements in technology, production and tactics. But Russia is working furiously to catch up, building out a bigger drone force after rolling out a successful elite drone unit known as Rubicon.

取而代之的是，基輔與莫斯科之間的較量主要在於誰能研發出更優秀的無人機，及更有效的防禦手段。在前線的部分地區，烏克蘭近月憑藉技術、生產與戰術的快速進展，已取得上風。但俄羅斯也在全力追趕，並在成功推出一支名爲「盧比孔」的精銳無人機部隊後，積極擴充更龐大的無人機力量。

Drones have forced Russian troops to change their strategy. Now they try to infiltrate territory gradually with small teams of soldiers, often on foot. This has resulted in an ever-growing swath of territory known as the “gray zone,” where troops from both sides are present and control is not clear-cut.

無人機迫使俄軍改變戰術。如今他們嘗試以小股步兵逐步滲透領土，往往徒步行動。這導致出現一片不斷擴大的「灰色地帶」——雙方部隊都在其中活動，但控制權並不明確。

As the war effort stalls, it is putting the Russian government under increasing economic and political strain. Putin’s approval ratings have fallen to their lowest levels since the start of the war.

隨着戰事陷入僵局，俄羅斯政府正承受日益加重的經濟與政治壓力。普亭的支持率已降至開以來的最低點。

文／Paul Sonne, Cassandra Vinograd and Milana Mazaeva，譯／國際中心